This article examines changes in the average number of births and the contributing factors behind these changes, drawing on individual-level family reconstitution data from eight communities or manors located in the parishes of Helme and Paistu in the historic region of Mulgimaa. It explores how various behavioural shifts influenced the fertility decline, and discusses social and local differences in fertility levels, including the impact of spousal death on the number of births per woman.
During the period under consideration, rural Estonia was transitioning from the traditional manorial system to a more market-oriented society. The region studied played a pioneering role in the country’s fertility transition.
The death of the spouse and marrying a widower had a significant negative impact on the average number of children per woman in the cohorts born between 1820 and 1840, though this effect decreased substantially in later cohorts. In these earlier cohorts, one-quarter of first marriages involved a widower, reducing the average number of children per woman from five to 3.3.
In conclusion, the article identifies multiple factors that contributed to the early fertility decline in Mulgimaa and Estonia more broadly. It argues that these factors led to a rapid decline in fertility only when acting in combination—not in isolation.
Both before and during the fertility transition, rural workers and cottagers consistently exhibited lower fertility levels. The fertility gap between farmers and rural labourers or cottagers declined from 1.5–2.5 children to just 0.3–0.1 children per woman in the observed cohorts. This convergence in fertility rates among different social groups, especially among women born in the 1850s–1870s, is largely attributed to delayed marriages, longer birth intervals, and earlier cessation of childbearing among farmers. However, the study does not support the hypothesis that the fertility transition began with cohorts born in the 1830s and 1840s. Rather, signs of deliberate fertility regulation first appear in the cohorts born in the 1850s. The analysis also reveals clear differences in birth intervals based on parish and socio-economic status.